The Cheonan Incident

Time will tell what happened on the Cheonan, the corvette that sank after an explosion on Friday. It's possible that an on-board accident led to the disaster, in which case the ROK Navy has some serious soul-searching. The more likely, although far from proven, cause of the explosion was a North Korean mine or torpedo. If the North did indeed sink the ship, South Korea will be put in a very uncomfortable position. On the one hand, it doesn't want to escalate tensions on the peninsula. On the other, it doesn't want to establish a precedent of allowing its enemy to murder 46 of its citizens without answering in some manner. First, the world has to wait until a final judgment is passed on the cause of the explosion. But then the world will be waiting on pins and needles to see the ROK's official reaction. Here's three possible replies, along with their significance in the ongoing diplomatic struggle:

1) Equivalent military action. This is the most unlikely move by South Korea because it well understands that the DPRK government is itching for a tit-for-tat military showdown that it can use to rally its disgruntled citizens around. Thus if the South shoots down a plane or knocks out one of the Northern navy's ships, it should expect to enter a long period of Spy Vs. Spy counterattacks, something which nobody in the Lee government has much stomach for.

2) Massive military action. While this option brings the danger of a full-scale war to the table, military planners in Seoul might consider that a threat worth its while to deliver a strong blow to the DPRK. Bombing a nuclear installation, for instance, along with a call-up of reserves, might convince the North that President Lee is just crazy enough that he shouldn't be messed with in this manner. While this option is highly unlikely, there's an argument to be made that now might be the time for the South to start acting more forcefully.

3) Diplomatic maneuvering. This is probably the road which Seoul will take. It has a long history of ignoring North Korean provocations and instead collecting diplomatic points from China and the U.S. as a national security strategy. Unfortunately, there's little reason to believe that the South will gain anything tangible from this tactic because the screws have already been turned so tightly on the North in regards to its proliferation activities.

To photograph or not to photograph

The brutal rape and murder of 13-year-old Lee Yu-ri has been dominating the news in Korea, for good reason. This poor young girl was snatched from her home and killed by a man who had a history of the same kind of vile crimes. When police arrested suspect Kim Kil-tae, they allowed the media to photograph him. This act was highly unusual. For years, police had kept suspects away from cameras. The photographing of Kim made almost as much news as his arrest. That's because Koreans are extremely sensitive about saving face and keeping their dirty laundry private. I am curious to see what kind of policy the government puts together about suspect mugs. No matter what they decide, I suspect that these photos will make their way to the Internet, sooner or later.
- Myung Oak Kim